Risk of Ruin Calculator
Stop guessing. Calculate the exact mathematical probability of blowing your account based on your strategy's win rate and risk-reward ratio.
Eliminate mathematical ruin with the Raptor EA. 100% automated risk control.
Risk of Ruin Calculator
Calculate the mathematical probability of blowing your account.
Strategy Metrics
Risk Management
High Risk of Ruin
Your risk per trade is too high for your win rate. A normal losing streak will likely breach your drawdown limit.
Expected Value (EV)
Average R multiple per trade
+0.20R
Risk of Ruin (100 Trades)
45.47%
Probability of hitting 10 consecutive losses
What is the Risk of Ruin?
In trading, the Risk of Ruin (RoR) is the statistical probability that you will lose your entire trading capital (or hit your max drawdown limit) before you can achieve a meaningful profit.
Even if you have a highly profitable strategy with a 60% win rate and a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio, if you risk too much per trade (e.g., 10%), a normal statistical losing streak will mathematically guarantee the destruction of your account.
Expected Value (EV)
Before worrying about risk management, your strategy must have a positive Expected Value (EV). EV is the average R-multiple you can expect to make per trade.
If your EV is negative, no amount of money management will save you. You are mathematically guaranteed to reach ruin over a large enough sample size.
Losing Streaks are Inevitable
Our calculator uses binomial probability to show you the likelihood of hitting a losing streak large enough to breach your drawdown limit.
For example, if you risk 2% per trade, it takes 5 consecutive losses to hit a 10% prop firm drawdown limit. This tool reveals how likely that 5-trade streak is over your next 100 trades.
Is Your Strategy Mathematically Flawed?
Remove human emotion and trade a system with a statistically verified positive expectancy. Our Raptor EA is backtested to ensure a mathematically impenetrable Risk of Ruin.